In its Q2-18 shareholder letter, Tesla predicted that beginning in Q3-18 it will, absent a severe force majeure or recession, achieve sustained quarterly profits with continued rapid growth. In Tesla’s Q2-18 conference call, Elon Musk predicted profits and positive cash-flow for every future quarter, unless there's a recession or force majeure that interrupts Tesla’s supply … Continue reading Tesla’s Cobalt Blues: Growth Fallacies and Supply Chain Risque Majeure
“Spin”is a form of propaganda that relies on a biased interpretation of fact to influence opinion. “Fake News” is a more dishonest form of propaganda that relies on a combination of fact and falsehood to influence opinion. “Deception” is an even more dishonest form of propaganda that principally relies on falsehood to influence opinion. Depending … Continue reading Tesla’s Cobalt Blues; Spin, Fake News or Deception?
I need to point out here that Lithium, half of which is produced from processing natural brines (high salt water solutions) that contain at most 1500 parts per million (0.15%) of lithium, but on the average are less than 500 ppm (0.05%), is relatively more accessible than cobalt. Even so, lithium, priced as metal, is … Continue reading The EV Revolution – Reality Bites
A key problem of the decision to electrify the powertrains of personal and road-freight vehicles in most industrialized countries is that it was purely politically, not market, driven outside of China (and I think Korea and perhaps even Japan). The “scientific model” making bureaucrats in support of the lowest common denominator social justice, re-election, and … Continue reading The EV Revolution – the West “adopts” the Diktat
We wouldn’t expect a charity to fund a mine, much less a comprehensive national mining program focused on creating national self-sufficiency in critical metals and minerals, one, as an example, that would make a modern industrial country self-sufficient, and in that way “secure,” in critical technology metals. The scale of the challenge is something that … Continue reading The Global Supply of Critical Metals….. with Chinese Characteristics
In the US, lead acid batteries have a near perfect recycling record of 99.3% and recycled lead from used batteries satisfies over 80% of domestic demand. Roughly 85% of lithium-ion batteries are discarded because there is no infrastructure, collection, sorting and transportation are challenging and used electronics, including their batteries, frequently end up in China. … Continue reading A Day Will Come When Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Is Practical, But It Is Not This Day
The Great & the Good of the London commodities trading community came together in the last week of February to mull upon the prospects of specialty metals, in particular the battery metals. Braving the snow (nothing by New York or Toronto standards) they attempted to fathom fact from fiction as it pertained to metals where … Continue reading Argus Metals Week – Cobalt Meets Its Waterloo?
Jack Lifton of Jack Lifton LLC Summary China will dominate the OEM automotive Industry's demand for critical materials for EVs Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics outdoes free markets in sourcing critical materials China is openly seeking EV technology in any way it can Over the coming decade 2017-2027 the driver of demand for critical materials is … Continue reading Looking at the “China 2025” plan; The OEM Automotive Industry and Critical Materials
It’s been a fascinating week as one of my readers forwarded copies of a May 12th “Commodities Comment” from Macquarie Wealth Management that focused on China’s recent efforts to shore up its cobalt supply chains and a May 16th report from Morgan Stanley that focused on expected growth in global demand for lithium, graphite, cobalt, … Continue reading Petersen critiques Tesla’s cobalt, lithium and graphite disclosures for EV batteries
Since early March I’ve written five articles that examine cobalt supply and demand issues and explain why I believe the lithium-ion battery industry is facing a raw materials shortage of epic proportion. Today I’ll drill down into market dynamics within the lithium-ion battery industry and explain why I think lithium-ion batteries for EVs will be … Continue reading Cheap Lithium-ion Batteries for EVs vs. The Cobalt Cliff