Tesla’s Cobalt Blues: Growth Fallacies and Supply Chain Risque Majeure

In its Q2-18 shareholder letter, Tesla predicted that beginning in Q3-18 it will, absent a severe force majeure or recession, achieve sustained quarterly profits with continued rapid growth. In Tesla’s Q2-18 conference call, Elon Musk predicted profits and positive cash-flow for every future quarter, unless there's a recession or force majeure that interrupts Tesla’s supply … Continue reading Tesla’s Cobalt Blues: Growth Fallacies and Supply Chain Risque Majeure

Petersen critiques Tesla’s cobalt, lithium and graphite disclosures for EV batteries

It’s been a fascinating week as one of my readers forwarded copies of a May 12th “Commodities Comment” from Macquarie Wealth Management that focused on China’s recent efforts to shore up its cobalt supply chains and a May 16th report from Morgan Stanley that focused on expected growth in global demand for lithium, graphite, cobalt, … Continue reading Petersen critiques Tesla’s cobalt, lithium and graphite disclosures for EV batteries

Lithium-ion Batteries – The Cobalt Cliff Is Upon Us

I had a highly enlightening conversation on Wednesday morning with the staff of Darton Commodities Limited, a U.K.-based metals trading firm that specializes in cobalt products and serves as an intermediary between refined cobalt producers and European cobalt users. A couple days before the call, Darton sent me a copy of their 42 page “2015-2016 … Continue reading Lithium-ion Batteries – The Cobalt Cliff Is Upon Us

EV Batteries and the Cobalt Cliff: The biggest “oops” in the history of supply chain management

In early March, I described cobalt supply and demand dynamics as a giga-risk for lithium-ion battery manufacturers. I subsequently took my analysis a step further and suggested that electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers including Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Nissan (NSANY) and Porsche (POAHY) might soon find themselves coping with the biggest “oops” in the history … Continue reading EV Batteries and the Cobalt Cliff: The biggest “oops” in the history of supply chain management